Deal Analysis and Trading Tips for the Euro

No tests of the specified levels occurred yesterday during the second half of the day. This was due to Thanksgiving in the US, which significantly reduced market volatility and trading volume.

Today, European economic data will dominate the market, with particular attention to inflation figures. Trading activity in Germany often serves as a key indicator of the Eurozone's economic health. If retail sales data indicate growth, it could boost investor confidence in the stability of the German economy, positively impacting the euro and mitigating the adverse effects of high inflation. Germany's unemployment rate is another key metric reflecting the broader socio-economic climate. A decrease in unemployment could encourage consumer spending, a crucial driver of economic growth. Conversely, persistently high or rising unemployment could place pressure on the euro and amplify uncertainty.

The Eurozone consumer price index is expected to act as a catalyst for significant currency market fluctuations. A resurgence in inflation could prompt the European Central Bank to maintain interest rates, increasing market volatility. On the other hand, declining inflationary pressure could indicate potential monetary policy easing, likely weakening the euro. Therefore, today's reports are crucial not only for short-term forecasts but also for shaping long-term currency investment strategies. Traders will closely monitor these indicators for hints about future central bank actions.

For intraday strategies, I will focus on implementing scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Buy the euro at 1.0583 (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0633. At 1.0633, exit the market and sell the euro for a 30–35 point pullback. Euro growth during the first half of the day is likely only if supported by positive statistics.Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and beginning to rise.
• Scenario #2: Buy the euro after two consecutive tests of 1.0563, provided the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This setup should limit the pair's downward potential and trigger an upward reversal. Expect growth to levels 1.0583 and 1.0633.

Sell Scenarios

• Scenario #1: Sell the euro at 1.0563 (red line on the chart) with a target of 1.0516. Exit at 1.0516 and buy back for a 20–25 point pullback. Selling at higher levels is preferable, as downward pressure could resume at any moment.Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and beginning to decline.
• Scenario #2: Sell the euro after two consecutive tests of 1.0583, provided the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This setup should limit the pair's upward potential and trigger a downward reversal. Expect declines to levels 1.0563 and 1.0516.

What's on the chart:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick Green Line: Expected price for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick Red Line: Expected price for placing Take Profit or locking in profits, as further declines below this level are unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: Focus on overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important for Beginners

Forex traders should approach market entry with caution. Avoid trading before the release of major fundamental reports to minimize exposure to sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news events, always use stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Trading without stop-loss orders can quickly deplete your deposit, especially when trading large volumes without proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a well-defined plan, like the one outlined above. Spontaneous decisions based on current market conditions are generally a losing strategy for intraday traders.