Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0498 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero line, which, in my view, limited the euro's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro and missed the morning movement of the pair.

In the second half of the day, a variety of statistics will be released, with particular focus on US GDP data for Q3. These figures are expected to remain unchanged, potentially indicating a balance between growing consumer spending and inflationary pressures. Particular attention should be given to the consumer sector, which is expected to demonstrate strong performance. If household spending remains robust, it could signal potential economic growth in the near term.

However, risks such as changes in Federal Reserve monetary policy and global market instability must also be considered. These factors could significantly influence economic activity in the coming quarters—especially if the Fed pauses interest rate cuts in December.

The Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) index report could also play a significant role in shaping the market and influencing the Federal Reserve's plans. If the data exceed expectations, it could confirm strong consumer demand, prompting the Fed to maintain its monetary policy and strengthening the US dollar. On the other hand, weaker data could allow the euro to stage a temporary correction. For my intraday strategy, I will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Buy the euro today upon reaching 1.0540 (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0582. At 1.0582, I plan to exit the market and open sell positions in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point movement. A strong rise in the euro today can only be expected after weak US data.

Important: Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero line and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro if the price tests 1.0509 twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downside potential and may trigger an upward reversal. Expect a rise to the opposite levels of 1.0540 and 1.0582.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: Sell the euro after reaching 1.0509 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0466, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a 20-25 point reversal. Within the ongoing downtrend, pressure on the pair is likely to persist.

Important: Before selling, ensure the MACD indicator is below the zero line and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro if the price tests 1.0540 twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upside potential and may trigger a downward reversal. Expect a decline to the opposite levels of 1.0509 and 1.0466.

On the Chart:

• Thin Green Line: Entry price for buying the currency pair.
• Thick Green Line: Suggested price for setting a Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely.
• Thin Red Line: Entry price for selling the currency pair.
• Thick Red Line: Suggested price for setting a Take Profit or manually fixing profits, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely.
• MACD Indicator: When entering the market, monitor overbought and oversold zones.

Important Notes:

Beginner traders in the forex market must exercise extreme caution when making market entry decisions. Before the release of significant fundamental reports, it is best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-loss orders, you could quickly lose your entire deposit. This is especially true if you trade large volumes without applying proper money management.

Remember, successful trading requires a clear plan, such as the one outlined above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are an inherently losing strategy for intraday traders.