Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro
There were no tests of the levels I had indicated in the second half of the day, so there were no convincing entry points into the market. Yes, the positive reaction to decent Eurozone industrial production data helped the pair stay afloat in the first half of the day, making it clear that no significant euro sell-off would occur, and sellers wouldn't be able to offset the growth seen last Thursday following the European Central Bank meeting.
Today's data on the Consumer Price Index and trade balance will not significantly impact the market, nor will the report on the Eurozone trade balance. Traders will likely ignore the speech by ECB Vice President Luis de Guindos, as we are not expected to hear anything new. For this reason, it's better to focus on continuing the upward trend. As for the intraday strategy, I'll lean more toward the execution of scenarios No. 1 and 2.
Buy Signal
Scenario No 1: Today, I plan to buy the euro when the price reaches around 1.1114 (green line on the chart), with a target of rising to the level of 1.1166. At 1.1166, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Today, you can count on the euro's rise in the first half of the day as a continuation of the bullish momentum. Important! Before buying, ensure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and starting to rise.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to buy the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1085, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the oversold area. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward market reversal. Growth can be expected to be at the opposite levels of 1.1114 and 1.1166.
Sell Signal
Scenario No 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the level of 1.1085 (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.1044, where I plan to exit the market and immediately buy in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from that level. Pressure on the pair will return today in case of a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high and weak Eurozone data. Important! Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and starting to decline.
Scenario No 2: I also plan to sell the euro today in case of two consecutive tests of the price at 1.1114, at the moment when the MACD indicator is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected to the opposite levels of 1.1085 and 1.1044.
What's on the Chart:
Thin green line: the entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.
Thick green line: the estimated price at which you can set Take Profit or manually close positions, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
Thin red line: the entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.
Thick red line: an estimated price at which you can place Take Profit or manually close positions, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
MACD indicator: when entering the market, it is essential to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.
Important: Novice traders in the forex market need to be very careful when making decisions about entering the market. It is best to stay out of the market before important fundamental reports are released to avoid getting caught in sharp price fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop orders to minimize losses. You must set stop orders to avoid losing your entire deposit, especially if you don't use money management and trade in large volumes.
Remember, a clear trading plan, like the one I've outlined, is essential for successful trading. Making impulsive decisions based on the current market situation is a losing strategy for novice intraday traders.
